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latin america analysis

13:14 09-Th12-2020

Will Biden lift Cuba sanctions? For a full list of references, please contact the author . The Biden administration will have a much harder time implementing its policy in South America without Brazil's cooperation. : Environmental issues will come to the fore, given the unbridled destruction of the Amazon as a result of policies promoted by Bolsonaro. BY LATINVEX STAFF. Sabatini: The goals of a Biden policy will remain the same as under Trump: a transition that removes Maduro and his corrupt cronies from power and establishes the country on the path toward democracy and broad based, stable economic growth. Issues such as climate change and the environment, which have been absent over the past four years, will occupy an important place on the inter-American agenda. At the same time, a Biden administration will be more willing to call out and even punish human rights abusing regimes more even-handedly, such as Honduras, Brazil and El Salvador. The desire to promote civil society and human rights will cause friction in the government-to-government relationship, as does Cuba's involvement in Venezuela. The Cuban-American vote in November 3 elections demonstrates that the Biden administration will have a longer hill to climb to get to the point where the Obama administration enjoyed relatively broad support -- save in a few corners -- for its Cuba policies at the end of 2014. Latinvex: Will Biden change US policy on Venezuela? Second, the Biden administration will place greater emphasis on development in migrant-sending countries, particularly in the Northern Triangle; this will be particularly important as rising poverty and the effects of extreme weather, such as the hurricane Eta, will increase the push factor for migration, but of course it's also important for US's image. The process of normalization that took place during the Obama years is not likely to be revisited any time soon, although ambassadors could once again be exchanged. There may be moments of some tension, but it is clearly in the interests of both countries to maintain at least a cordial bilateral relationship. : Overall, the relationship will become more normal, returning to a relationship based more on institutional interactions and less on personal interactions. It remains to be seen how hard the US, working in concert with European governments, will push Bolsonaro, and to what extent he will be prepared to accommodate and adjust to US pressure to take meaningful steps to curb deforestation. Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue. Latin America could become a key contributor to the global push towards low‑carbon hydrogen. With Biden we are likely to see increased attention and additional resources devoted to address Venezuela's dire humanitarian situation, both within the country and also to assist the over 5 million Venezuelan migrants and refugees who fled to neighboring countries. Latin America has enjoyed a long history of regional cooperation, ever since most countries won their independence 200 years ago. Venezuela – which ranked as Latin America’s second-richest country in 1998 – is set to become the region’s poorest next year, according to a Latinvex analysis of new data and projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).. : The desire to return to the Obama era policies and perhaps even push them farther is there in the Biden team, but given the likely resistance in South Florida it will not be an immediate priority. Download the Report Military engagement is an important and officially acknowledged part of the growing interactions between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Latin America and the Caribbean. : Given the bromance between Trump and Bolsonaro, bilateral relations will remain attenuated at a personal level. The peoples of this large area shared the experience of conquest and colonization by the The new administration will be consumed by domestic priorities--containing and overcoming the pandemic and reactivating the U.S. economy--and other international issues--Afghanistan, Iran, China, etc.--will dominate the foreign policy agenda, as in the past. Analysis Introduction. Latinvex: How do you expect Biden to change US-Brazil relations? BY JOACHIM BAMRUD . The footballer's sudden death at 60 years old triggered an outpouring of grief around the world, Mexico has the fourth highest death toll in the world, with 107,000 succumbing to Covid-19, The US and EU have both declared the vote as fraudulent before it has taken place, The prosecutor's office is investigating the circumstances surrounding the football star's death and whether it involved medical negligence, News of Diego Maradona's death echoed on the streets, in the homes and the tearful gazes of Argentinians across the football mad nation, Black Brazilians are almost three times as likely to be victims of homicide and the influence of slavery, abolished in 1899, is evident, The 34-year-old woman's ex-boyfriend worked as a gardener for Santa Rosa council, The Mexican government complained bitterly that it was being kept in the dark about Gen Cienfuegos's case, Lawmakers will meet in an emergency session to call for Manuel Merino's resignation, The opposition-controlled congress removed Martin Vizcarra, who had been on an anti-corruption drive, in an impeachment vote, President enjoyed record popularity thanks to anti-corruption drive but was removed by opposition-controlled congress, Doctor says surgery was successful and the Argentine football great will remain under observation, Turtles’ beach nests are normally disturbed by fishing and tourist activity, Electoral Service says that of the first 4.4 million ballots counted nearly 78 per cent favoured a new charter, 'No concerns about safety' amid local reports the participant had been given the placebo, More than 200 days into a strict quarantine, citizens of the coastal city have seen a five-fold increase in depression, It is hoped that the gene-edited crop will reduce water stress and food scarcity across the region, While voting was peaceful, the long wait Sunday night for results fuelled speculation that something was awry, Tens of thousands of demonstrators gather a week before Chileans vote on referendum on whether to replace the dictatorship-era constitution, In part four of How Donald Trump has changed the world, we look at how the president's deal-making has kept out a tide of migrants, Jesse Katayama has been stranded in Peru since March after the government closed its borders and introduced a draconian lockdown, Manaus, in Brazil, suffered one of the world's most devastating outbreaks. But many in the Biden camp have been disappointed that the Cuban government failed to take advantage of President Obama's engagement approach five years ago. As one Latin American diplomat told me, 'We're not children. Issues such as climate change and the environment, which have been absent over the past four years, will occupy an important place on the inter-American agenda. But since under the new administration the military option will not be on the table, there needs to be a more serious, hard-headed approach to pursue a negotiated settlement. Cynthia Arnson, Director of the Latin America Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center. ... analysis and information on Latin America, its people, politics and society. : It's important to keep expectations in check. As per the research report, the size of the Latin America Collagen and Gelatin Market is valued at USD 0.54 billion in 2020 and estimated to be growing at a CAGR of 9.52%, to reach USD 0.85 billion by 2025 during the forecast period 2020-2025. Biden and his Latin American team will strive to maintain a working relationship, but progress on trade and other issues of interest to Brazil will no doubt be conditioned on efforts to curb deforestation. an associate vice president with the Cohen Group who served as deputy assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere Affairs); How will US-Latin American relations change under the Biden presidency? Will Biden be more critical of Mexico’s discrimination against US investors, especially in the energy sector? Venezuela's Maduro wins Court of Appeal battle to access £800m gold bullion, Brazilian tribes caught between burning wetlands and Covid-19, Pablo Escobar's nephew finds £14m in cash hidden in wall of drug lord's house, Mexico's populist president left embarrassed by failed stunt to sell private jet, Nicolas Maduro responsible for 'crimes against humanity', UN report finds, Chinese vessels account for 99 per cent of fishing off Galapagos, report finds. Nor do I expect the broad relationship will suffer from the perception in democratic circles that AMLO supports Trump (This reflects AMLO's decision to visit the White House in the middle of the campaign (and the pandemic) and his post-election refusal to congratulate Biden on his election victory until it is official). The Oscars 2021 submissions from Latin America are: Ventana Sur line-up showcases emerging Latin American filmmakers. Sabatini: There will be a number of changes in tone and approach to the region. Or at least ease US-Cuba restrictions? The desire to promote civil society and human rights will cause friction in the government-to-government relationship, as does Cuba's involvement in Venezuela. There may be moments of some tension, but it is clearly in the interests of both countries to maintain at least a cordial bilateral relationship. With Joe Biden assuming the US presidency on January 20, 2021, US policy towards Latin America is expected to change. Shifter: On Cuba, Biden is likely to proceed cautiously. And there will undoubtedly be initiatives to bolster clean energy transitions in the fight against climate change. Biden is both too professional and too aware of Mexico's importance to the United States for this to happen. With an administration no longer loath to offend its southern neighbor so as not to upset its inhumane immigration practices, Biden's policy toward Mexico will be more free to deepen economic relations and protect US interests, including those of investors. That being said, a Biden Administration is unlikely to do any special favors for AMLO. But Biden has a longstanding personal interest in the region, with significant experience, both as Vice President and Senator, concerning Central America and Colombia. The in-depth analysis provides an insight into the Latin America software-as-a-service (SaaS) market , underlining the growth rate and opportunities offered in the business. : The goals of a Biden policy will remain the same as under Trump: a transition that removes Maduro and his corrupt cronies from power and establishes the country on the path toward democracy and broad based, stable economic growth. It also analyzes the major players and the competitive landscape in the Latin American textile industry. Adoption of new technologies such as Internet of Things, Big Data, improvised mobility, cost efficacy, minimum environmental impact and uptake in … Latin America: Maersk Weathers COVID Storm, Mexico: President More Radical, Investor-Hostile, Latin America: Bank Profits Grew Last Year, Latin America Energy & Projects: The COVID-19 Impact, Arbitration: Mixed Outlook for Colombia, Peru, Colombia & COVID-19: More Labor, Restructuring Work, COVID-19 & Latin America: More Arbitration, Covid-19 & Latin America: Colombia Best Outlook, M&As: Brazil Jumps 33% , Latin America Falls 28%, Latin America & Coronavirus: Impact on Law Firms, CEOs Upbeat About Brazil, Less So on Mexico, Argentina, Latin America Insurance:  Winners & Losers, Latin America: Profits Surge, But Pemex Lags, Latin America: Multinational Revenues Fall 1%, ICSID: Dechert, Freshfields Advise Glencore Dispute, Latin America: Arbitration & Litigation Outlook, Latin America: Panama Richest, Argentina Declines, Mexico Energy: Investors Hesitate Over AMLO, Latin America M&As: Latham & Watkins Leads, Mexico Capital Markets: Uncertain Outlook, SAP Gets First Female Latin America President. Regional GDP increased a moderate 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter, matching last month’s preliminary reading and marking a slowdown from the fourth quarter’s 2.0% … Latin America Basketball News, Latin American basketball, Latin America Basketball News, news, stats, standings, scores But Cuba's social and economic conditions, aggravated by the pandemic and Venezuela's utter collapse, have deteriorated significantly, so the regime may have few options. It is clear that the Trump approach of maximum pressure, including harsh economic sanctions, has not worked and has in fact only worsened the country's humanitarian catastrophe. Biden, who as US vice president visited Latin America 16 times, is closely familiar with the region. The data looks … The two leaders have a strong ideological and temperamental affinity. After finishing 2019 with lower-than-expected growth, the region’s recovery should reach 1.4% for this year and 2.1% for next year. Biden will face a political imperative to create jobs in the United States, and trade agreements such as the TPP are often accused by organized labor as leading to the export of U.S. jobs and manufacturing. Maduro is stronger today than he was in January 2019 when. Unfortunately, the Biden administration will have to start over. The trick will be to raise them in a way that does not provide an opening for Trump to stoke the ire of his former ally. Will Biden change US policy on Venezuela? For Biden, the destruction of the Amazon will be a fundamental concern on the US-Brazil agenda. Mexico becoming poorer as Panama remains region’s richest. Latinvex interviews four Latin America experts on what to expect from the next US president. At the onset of the year, nine of the region’s 10 largest economies sat in the extreme- or high-risk category of our Civil Unrest Index.The only outlier was Chile. Biden is likely to seriously rethink US policy towards Venezuela. For one, there will be a greater emphasis on collaboration and coordination, whether on matters of development assistance--especially important in the midst of the COVID-economic contraction and the unprecedented growth in poverty--or promoting a peaceful transition in Venezuela or on checking China's influence in the region. Latin America and The Caribbean. Featured insights and store visits from Latin America COVID-19: how the pandemic is shaping grocery retail in Latin America This report builds on our 10 global hypotheses, which we published in April, focusing on the six that have been the most prevalent in Latin America. But many in the Biden camp have been disappointed that the Cuban government failed to take advantage of President Obama's engagement approach five years ago. Share. This is apparent from BBVA Research’s Latin America Economic Outlook report for the first quarter of 2020. Sabatini: Given the bromance between Trump and Bolsonaro, bilateral relations will remain attenuated at a personal level. Nor do I expect the broad relationship will suffer from the perception in democratic circles that AMLO supports Trump (This reflects AMLO's decision to visit the White House in the middle of the campaign (and the pandemic) and his post-election refusal to congratulate Biden on his election victory until it is official). Biden and his Latin American team will strive to maintain a working relationship, but progress on trade and other issues of interest to Brazil will no doubt be conditioned on efforts to curb deforestation. Regarding the latter while the Trump administration was correct in raising concerns about China's intentions in the hemisphere, the threats came with few incentives to change course and often appeared heavy handed and condescending. Santo Domingo, R.D. by Mongabay.com on 2 September 2020 . Further support to Cuba will probably depend in great measure on the regime taking meaningful steps to open up economically and politically. This will help restore the objectivity of a human rights agenda in the hemisphere, though the days of broad-based support for democracy and human rights and the right to intervene in their defense withered long ago. Latin America was viewed as being outside of ordinary experiences. Latinvex: Will Biden be more critical of Mexico’s discrimination against US investors, especially in the energy sector? Finally, should immigration from and through Mexico pick up this spring as everyone expects, it is likely to once again become a point of contention between the two governments. Latin America Collagen and Gelatin Market Size & Growth (2020 - 2025). FLeet LaTAm. What it won't involve, though, are direct or overt references to a US military invasion, creating false hopes of a quick fix or stubborn adherence to static, inflexible sanctions. Latinvex: How will US-Latin American relations change under a Biden presidency? As Latin America boasted the region with the best car sales uptick last year, let's look at its emerging production centers and the brands which have built up their networks in the wake of globalization. Further support to Cuba will probably depend in great measure on the regime taking meaningful steps to open up economically and politically. In line with global developments, governments in the region are taking decisive steps to foster hydrogen’s potential as a key component of their clean energy transitions and a source of export revenues. Whether it is prepared to do so is a major question. Latinvex interviews four Latin America experts on what to expect from the next US president. Third, the overwhelming emphasis on [former Trump national security advisor John] Bolton's too cutely-titled 'troika of tyranny' will be toned down to bring along other countries in international efforts to sanction and incentivize change in the to use another Bolton alliteration 'triangle of terrorism.' Whether it is prepared to do so is a major question. Arnson: The Trump administration policy of achieving regime change or a democratic transition through a massive pressure campaign of crippling economic sanctions has not achieved the desired results. Arnson: Environmental issues will come to the fore, given the unbridled destruction of the Amazon as a result of policies promoted by Bolsonaro. Biden will use economic sanctions strategically, not merely to punish Maduro for the sake of doing so, but to find a solution. How do you expect Biden to change US-Brazil relations? Arnson: It is likely that, in the interest of supporting the Cuban people, a Biden administration will allow Cuban-Americans in the United States to send remittances to family members on the island. But there are plenty of mutual shared interests between the two countries including commercial relations, cooperation on Venezuela and development more broadly. Argentina to debate new bank note showing Maradona goal against England, Mexico ignores WHO advice to get 'serious' as coronavirus cases and deaths rise, Venezuela heads to polls in parliamentary election with Juan Guaidó boycotting the vote, Juan Guaido prepares to lose his seat in Venezuela - and his freedom, Cuba faces dilemma after rare protests triggered by social media, Argentina police free 70 members of female-led Christian cult that kidnapped poor children across the country, Brazil Amazon deforestation rises to highest level in over a decadeÂ, Argentine prosecutors probe Diego Maradona's death, 'He gave us a kind of joy that no one else did': Devastated Argentinians mourn the loss of Diego Maradona, Thousands attack Brazil supermarket amid violent protests after black man beaten to death by security guard, Argentinian victim of domestic abuse given ex-partner's job in 'reparation' ruling, US to drop charges against former Mexican defense minister arrested in Los Angeles last month, Three protesters killed as thousands of  Peruvians rally against President, 'All of Peru is fired up': Protests erupt across country after popular president ousted, Peru ousts President Martin Vizcarra in impeachment vote, Diego Maradona undergoes brain surgery for blood clotÂ, Record number of rare turtles born as pandemic brings respite on Mexico beach, Early count has Chileans voting in favour of scrapping Pinochet-era constitution, Oxford coronavirus vaccine trial continuing after death of volunteer in Brazil, Psychological trauma of longest lockdown mounts in Buenos Aires as Argentina passes 1m cases, Drawing of a huge cat discovered in Peru's Nazca hills, Argentina to produce climate-resistant super wheat in world first, Evo Morales' former aide claims early victory in Bolivian election less than one year after former boss ousted, Churches torched on anniversary of protests in Chile, Trump's other wall: How the US president quietly won his war on migration, Peru opens Machu Picchu for a Japanese tourist who waited seven months to see Inca ruins. Latin America Healthcare System Overview: A comparative analysis of fiscal space in healthcare . : There will be a number of changes in tone and approach to the region. Starr: Overall, the relationship will become more normal, returning to a relationship based more on institutional interactions and less on personal interactions. Latin America faces some big challenges in 2020. Analysis. This report is commissioned via LSE Consulting which was set up by the London School of Economics and Political Science to enable and facilitate the application of its academic expertise and intellectual resources. There are practical and moral limits to bottling up immigration and asylum seekers by forcing them to wait on the other side of the border and then slow-walking their applications. The BUILD Act approved during the Trump administration is one tool that can help, but it has to come with the development assistant originally envisioned in the initiative. 17 Apr 19. 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